Posted Apr 27, 2010 08:15am EDT by Aaron Task in Investing: Looks like signs of a mature bull market!!

Looks like signs of a mature bull market!!


Bullish Sentiment on the Rise: Is It Time to Get Worried ... or Get on Board?





Posted Apr 27, 2010 08:15am EDT by Aaron Task in Investing



Related: ^DJI, ^GSPC, SPY, DIA, QQQQ, SCHW, ^IXIC



Sentiment is always tricky to measure - and something of a Rorschach test - but with the Dow up 71% from its March 2008 lows, the inevitable has started to happen: Bullish sentiment is rising.







Anecdotally, at least, the migration from investor "disbelief" in the rally to "acceptance" (if not "embrace") can be seen in a number of recent indicators, including:







* -- Newsweek's "America's Back" headline.



* -- An "S&P 3000 by 2020" prediction on Tech Ticker.



* -- A WSJ story about rising bullishness among technicians, featuring a prediction from Lowry's Paul Desmond's that "we could easily be getting into a speculative advance here, a real momentum move."



* -- A modicum of towel-tossing by noted bears such as Jeremy Grantham of GMO. In January, Grantham said the S&P was fairly valued at 850. In his most recent quarterly letter, the famed investor writes "the line of least resistance is a market move in the next 18 months or so back to the old highs, say, 1500 to 1600 on the S&P, accompanied by an equivalent gain in most risk measures, followed once again by a very dangerous break."



* -- A Bloomberg story about stocks being the cheapest since 1990, excluding the 2009 market trough.



* -- Rising optimism among private sector trade groups surveyed by the National Association for Business Economics, as detailed here.



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Bullish Sentiment on the Rise: Is It Time to Get Worried ... or Get on Board?