The stock market is signaling a ‘severe’ drop is imminent, says contrarian strategist

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/a-severe-drop-is-imminent-this-3-musketeers-stock-market-is-signaling-says-contrarian-strategist-11606824335?siteid=yhoof2

This year’s recovery for equity markets in the face of a deadly pandemic has been remarkable, so a strong December would seem to follow.

But a “pretty severe” stock drop may have already started, if not a week or so away, warns our call of the day, from the True Contrarian blog and newsletter’s chief executive officer, Steven Jon Kaplan. He says there are plenty of signals flagging this if investors know where to look.

“What I notice the most is investors crowding into the stock market and making record inflows, while insiders have never been selling more heavily than they have done in November 2020,” Kaplan told MarketWatch in an interview and emails.

He notes “intense selling” across the board via J3 Information Services Group, a website that tracks company director buying and selling, known as insiders. That means “most knowledgeable investors realize that some big drop is coming…and they’re preparing for it by reducing risk,” he says.

Kaplan says “a lot of things are going to be dropping by 30% or 40%,” and believes we are in a bear market, so suggests looking at pullbacks between 2000 and 2003 for an idea of what’s ahead.